Viendo archivo del sábado, 12 agosto 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Aug 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 225 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 AUG 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. AN M1 XRAY FLARE AT 0956Z,
SEEN BY SOHO EIT TO BE JUST BEYOND THE SOUTHWEST LIMB, WAS THE
LARGEST EVENT OF THE DAY. NUMEROUS C-CLASS FLARES OCCURRED, WITH
REGIONS 9114 (N10W58) AND 9125 (N25E42) CONTRIBUTING THE MAJORITY.
TWO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED: 9128 (N11E61) AND 9129 (S05E72).
REGION 9125 GREW SUBSTANTIALLY DURING THE PERIOD AS IT PRODUCED
FREQUENT FLARES.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE.
IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD REMAINED AT ACTIVE TO SEVERE STORM LEVELS. THE
STRONGEST DISTURBANCES OCCURRED DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS, AS
ENHANCED SOLAR WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUED TO DRIVE THE ACTIVITY. THE
IMF IS STILL SOUTHWARD WITH A MAGNITUDE OF 10 NT.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT MINOR TO MAJOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
THE CURRENT STORM SHOULD SUBSIDE OVER TIME, YIELDING TO MORE NORMAL
CONDITIONS BY THE PERIOD'S END. EXPECT LOCAL NIGHTTIME HOURS TO BE
THE MOST AFFECTED.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 AUG a 15 AUG
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | GREEN | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 AUG 189 Previsto 13 AUG-15 AUG 195/200/205 Media de 90 Días 12 AUG 190
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 AUG 039/060 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 AUG 050/120 PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 AUG-15 AUG 030/060-020/030-015/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 AUG a 15 AUG
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 50% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 15% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 20% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 60% | 40% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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