Viendo archivo del jueves, 19 octubre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Oct 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 293 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Oct 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was low, Region 9194 (S11W31) produced a
C3/1f flare with minor centimetric radio bursts at 19/0044Z. Earlier
in the period, a C1/Sf flare was observed in Region 9199 (N08E09),
Several minor fluctuations occurred in this region during the period
and the region remains moderately complex; however, no new growth
was noted. A long-duration C1 X-ray event that occurred between
19/0634 - 0826UT was also likely from Region 9199.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at low levels. Region 9199 has the best possibility for anything
greater than low C-class X-ray activity. Several regions on the disk
are capable of an isolated low C-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels with a small
chance for active conditions at high latitudes. A greater chance for
active periods will develop on day three as a coronal hole rotates
into a geoeffectively favorable position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Oct a 22 Oct
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Oct 158 Previsto 20 Oct-22 Oct 160/160/165 Media de 90 Días 19 Oct 172
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Oct 006/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Oct 010/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Oct-22 Oct 012/010-008/010-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Oct a 22 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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