Viendo archivo del jueves, 21 diciembre 2000
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Dec 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 356 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Dec 2000IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity remained low. Region 9280 (N08E48)
produced frequent low-level C-class subflares. This region possessed
a modest degree of magnetic complexity and showed a minor increase
in spot count and penumbral coverage. The remaining regions were
stable and simply structured. New Region 9282 (N19E68) was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class
flare from Region 9280.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak
interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft at around 21/1100
UTC, presumably from the halo-CME observed on 18 December.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the
period. Intermittent active periods will be possible during 23 - 24
December due to coronal hole effects.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Dec a 24 Dec
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Dec 195 Previsto 22 Dec-24 Dec 195/195/190 Media de 90 Días 21 Dec 175
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Dec 002/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Dec 006/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec 012/012-015/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Dec a 24 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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