Viendo archivo del jueves, 21 diciembre 2000

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2000 Dec 21 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 356 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Dec 2000

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z

Solar activity remained low. Region 9280 (N08E48) produced frequent low-level C-class subflares. This region possessed a modest degree of magnetic complexity and showed a minor increase in spot count and penumbral coverage. The remaining regions were stable and simply structured. New Region 9282 (N19E68) was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare from Region 9280.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to unsettled levels. A weak interplanetary shock passed the ACE spacecraft at around 21/1100 UTC, presumably from the halo-CME observed on 18 December.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels during most of the period. Intermittent active periods will be possible during 23 - 24 December due to coronal hole effects.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Dec a 24 Dec
Clase M35%35%35%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       21 Dec 195
  Previsto   22 Dec-24 Dec  195/195/190
  Media de 90 Días        21 Dec 175
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 20 Dec  002/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 21 Dec  006/008
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 22 Dec-24 Dec  012/012-015/015-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Dec a 24 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%35%35%
Tormenta Menor10%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%40%40%
Tormenta Menor15%25%25%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%

All times in UTC

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