Viendo archivo del martes, 2 enero 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Jan 02 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 002 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Jan 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z

Solar activity was low. The most interesting events of the last 24 hours were two long-duration C-class x-ray flares -- a C7 at 02/0811 UTC and a C6 at 02/1807 UTC. Neither flare seemed to be associated with activity on the visible disk. SOHO images suggest that the source may be behind the northeast limb although this is a preliminary analysis and not a certainty. New Regions 9295 (S12E73) and 9296 (N10E76) were numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. The most likely source of activity on the disk remains Region 9289 (S07W10). Activity levels may increase if the source of today's long-duration flares is in fact beyond the northeast limb and soon to rotate onto the visible disk.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet, becoming unsettled to active by the end of the forecast period due to a high-speed coronal hole stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Jan a 05 Jan
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       02 Jan 176
  Previsto   03 Jan-05 Jan  170/170/165
  Media de 90 Días        02 Jan 172
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 01 Jan  002/003
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 02 Jan  002/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan  005/012-010/015-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Jan a 05 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%15%15%
Tormenta Menor05%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%30%30%
Tormenta Menor10%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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