Viendo archivo del domingo, 28 enero 2001

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Jan 28 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 028 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Jan 2001

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 9313 (S04W64) produced a long-duration M1/1n at 28/1603 UTC associated with a halo CME. Region 9313 showed significant decay prior to the flare. Occasional C-class flares occurred during the rest of the period. The remaining regions were either stable or declining. New Region 9328 (N06W58) was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There will be a fair chance for an isolated M-class flare sometime during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels. An isolated active period occurred during 28/1200 - 1500 UTC. A proton event at greater than 10 MeV began at 28/2025 UTC following the M1/1n flare from Region 9313. By the close of the period, the greater than 10 MeV flux reached 23.1 pfu and was gradually increasing. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels late in the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels during 30 - 31 January in response to today's halo CME. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end early on 29 January. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux may again reach high levels during the first half of the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Jan a 31 Jan
Clase M40%40%35%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       28 Jan 168
  Previsto   29 Jan-31 Jan  165/160/160
  Media de 90 Días        28 Jan 174
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 27 Jan  002/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 28 Jan  007/005
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 29 Jan-31 Jan  007/004-010/008-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Jan a 31 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo20%20%30%
Tormenta Menor10%10%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%25%40%
Tormenta Menor10%10%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%05%

All times in UTC

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