Viendo archivo del viernes, 13 abril 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Apr 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 103 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Apr 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 9415 (S22W59)
declined in size and number of spots during the period. This region
still retains a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and is still
capable of producing M and X-class events. Region 9418 (N26W46)
developed into a more magnetically complex beta-gamma configuration,
however it produced very little activity today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9415 is still capable of producing another major
flare before it rotates over the western limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to severe storm levels. A coronal
mass ejection (CME), from an M2 flare on 11 April, impacted earth at
13/0735 UTC. A sudden impact of 19 nT was detected at the Boulder
USGS magnetometer. The resulting disturbance caused major and severe
geomagnetic storm conditions from 13/1900-2100 UTC, and minor to
major storm conditions from 13/1200-1500 UTC. Conditions subsided to
active levels for the remainder of the period. The greater than 10
MeV proton event ended at 13/1800 UTC. The polar cap absorption
event (PCA) ended during the period.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to minor storming for the first two days of
the period. These conditions will be the result of another impact at
earth of a CME. This CME originated from an X2 event on 12 April.
The expected arrival time is mid to late 14 April and at onset could
cause major storm levels, with brief severe storm levels at high
latitudes possible. Conditions should subside to quiet to active
levels on the third day.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Apr a 16 Apr
| Clase M | 80% | 70% | 60% |
| Clase X | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| Protón | 25% | 15% | 10% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Apr 137 Previsto 14 Apr-16 Apr 135/130/140 Media de 90 Días 13 Apr 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Apr 029/038 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Apr 025/035 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Apr-16 Apr 050/055-025/030-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Apr a 16 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 10% | 06% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 40% | 20% | 12% |
All times in UTC
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