Viendo archivo del domingo, 12 agosto 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Aug 12 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 224 Publicado el 2200Z a las 12 Aug 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 11-2100Z hasta 12-2100Z Solar activity was low. Occasional C-class flares were
observed through the period. Two new regions were numbered today as
Regions 9577 (N16W15) and 9578 (S10W11).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
An isolated M-class event is possible.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 11-2100Z a 12-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to minor storm conditions. A shock
passed the ACE spacecraft at 12/1050 UTC and created a sudden
impulse of 23 nt on the Boulder magnetometer at 12/1136 UTC. Solar
wind velocity increased from 336 km/s to 406 km/s and density jumped
from 6 p/cc to 35 p/cc. This shock is believed related to the
partial halo coronal mass ejection observed on 09 August.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be active to minor storm conditions for 13 August due to
the CME mentioned in IIA. Quiet to unsettled conditions should
prevail on 14 and 15 August.
III. Probabilidades del evento 13 Aug a 15 Aug
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 12 Aug 160 Previsto 13 Aug-15 Aug 155/150/145 Media de 90 Días 12 Aug 151
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 11 Aug 002/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 12 Aug 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 13 Aug-15 Aug 030/030-010/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 13 Aug a 15 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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