Viendo archivo del martes, 14 agosto 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Aug 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 226 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Aug 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was low, with the largest event being an
impulsive C9 flare, associated with an eruptive prominence on the
east limb near N40, at 14/0944 UTC. There was also a long duration
C2 event, with associations to a disappearing filament near N26W10,
as well as a sympathetic subfaint flare in spotless plage Region
9577 (N16W36), at 14/1242 UTC. A full halo CME was evident in
SOHO/LASCO imagery following this event. Two new regions were
numbered today: 9579 (S17W10) and 9580 (N24E73).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with an isolated chance for moderate flare
activity from Region 9574 (S04W61), or from closely spaced regions
9570 (S10W47) and 9578 (S08W38).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active, under the continuing
influence of weak high speed stream effects from a coronal hole.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the first two days.
Isolated active conditions are possible during the first day, as the
weak coronal hole effects wane. By day three, active to minor storm
conditions, with isolated major storm periods, are possible due to
the expected shock arrival from the CME activity described above in
section 1A.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Aug a 17 Aug
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Aug 147 Previsto 15 Aug-17 Aug 145/145/140 Media de 90 Días 14 Aug 151
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Aug 015/019 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Aug 012/013 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Aug-17 Aug 012/012-015/015-025/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Aug a 17 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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