Viendo archivo del sábado, 18 agosto 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Aug 18 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 230 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Aug 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares
occurred, principally from Region 9582 (N28E33). The other main area
of note is Region 9585 (N15E50) which has grown considerably in
sunspot area and has increased its magnetic complexity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Additional C-class flares are possible in Regions 9582 and 9585. A
small chance of M-level activity also exists.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field remained at storm levels until about 18/0000
UTC and was mostly unsettled to active after that. The greater than
10 MeV solar energetic proton event continues to slowly decay and
has been fluctuating around the 10 pfu event threshold for most of
the day.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active becoming quiet to unsettled by
the second day of the forecast period. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to end by 19 August.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Aug a 21 Aug
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 18 Aug 156 Previsto 19 Aug-21 Aug 160/165/170 Media de 90 Días 18 Aug 151
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 17 Aug 027/029 Estimado Afr/Ap 18 Aug 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 19 Aug-21 Aug 012/012-010/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Aug a 21 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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