Viendo archivo del lunes, 1 octubre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Oct 01 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 274 Publicado el 2200Z a las 01 Oct 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 01-2100Z Solar activity was high today. A long-duration M9
flare occurred at 01/0515 UTC in the vicinity of Region 9628
(S22W91). This flare produced a full halo CME from LASCO imagery as
well as a proton injection. Multiple discrete frequency radio
emissions were associated with the event. EIT imagery depicted an
excellent view of prominent loop structure that lasted through the
X-ray enhancement. Region 9628 is currently exiting the visible
disk. Four new region's were assigned today, Region's 9643
(S26W26), 9644 (N20W04), 9645 (S18E03), and 9646 (N12E42). All were
at least of Beta class magnetic complexity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate to high levels. Isolated M-class flares are probable.
The is also a chance for a major flare from Region 9632 (S21W73) as
it begins to exit the disk.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 01-2100Z
The geomagnetic field activity ranged from unsettled to major storm
levels due to a CME passage. A greater than 10 MeV proton event
began at 01/0255 UTC and continued at time of issue. At the close
of period the greater than 10 MeV flux was at 462 pfu and
increasing. This proton event was in response to the M9 flare
mentioned above.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next
two days due to CME effects. Mostly unsettled conditions are
expected on the final day of forecast. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to continue through most of the forecast
period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 02 Oct a 04 Oct
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 70% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 10% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 05% |
| PCAF | In Progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 01 Oct 217 Previsto 02 Oct-04 Oct 210/205/205 Media de 90 Días 01 Oct 177
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 Sep 015/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 01 Oct 035/040 Previsto Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct 020/020-030/030-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 02 Oct a 04 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 40% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 25% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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