Viendo archivo del domingo, 7 octubre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Oct 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 280 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Oct 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity was at low levels. Only a few minor
C-class flares occurred during the period. One event of note, was a
12 degree filament (centered at S21E12) that erupted between 07/1643
and 1651 UTC. An associated long duration C2 x-ray flare and an
optical sub flare occurred in the area of the filament's eruption.
LASCO/EIT imagery has not updated sufficiently, to be able to
ascertain at this time, if a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) was created
from the disappearing solar filament (DSF). Due to the central
location of the DSF, an accompanying CME could very possibly be
geoeffective. Two new regions were numbered: 9655 (S21E52) and 9656
(S21W13).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
mostly low levels. Isolated M-class events are possible.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
at geosynchronous orbit remained at elevated levels but below the
proton event threshold of 10 pfu.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are
possible on the second day of the forecast due to a small recurrent
coronal hole and its associated high speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Oct a 10 Oct
| Clase M | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Oct 173 Previsto 08 Oct-10 Oct 170/175/175 Media de 90 Días 07 Oct 182
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Oct 006/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Oct 004/004 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct 008/010-015/015-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Oct a 10 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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