Viendo archivo del lunes, 19 noviembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Nov 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 323 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Nov 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 9704 (S18E02) produced a
number of C-class subflares, the largest being a C4/Sf at 19/0701
UTC. This Region remains the most magnetically complex presently on
the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 9704 remains capable of M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels. A shock was
observed at the NASA ACE spacecraft at about 19/1735 UTC, followed
by a sudden impulse at ground magnetometers (10 nT at Boulder) at
about 19/1815 UTC. This shock is believed to be associated with a
CME which occurred on 17 November. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux at geosynchronous orbit exceeded the 10 pfu event threshold at
19/1230 UTC. This event remains in progress with a maximum flux so
far of 20 pfu at 19/2055 UTC. This event is believed to also be
associated with the M2/1n/CME event on 17 November.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours becoming
quiet to unsettled by the end of the three day forecast period. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end within the next
48 hours.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Nov a 22 Nov
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 95% | 50% | 10% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Nov 191 Previsto 20 Nov-22 Nov 190/185/180 Media de 90 Días 19 Nov 218
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Nov 008/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Nov 015/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Nov-22 Nov 015/015-010/012-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Nov a 22 Nov
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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