Viendo archivo del jueves, 13 diciembre 2001
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2001 Dec 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 347 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Dec 2001IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 9733 (N14E04) produced
an X6.2/3b flare at 13/1430 UTC. This event also produced associated
Type II and IV radio sweeps and a partial-halo coronal mass ejection
(CME). This region is continuing to grow more complex, developing a
near horizontal inversion line in its trailing portions. Region 9727
(S21W66) was also quite active during the period, producing three
M-class flares. Region 9727 showed continued growth in size and
complexity during the period. Regions 9727 and 9733 both retain
beta-gamma-delta magnetic classifications. Three new spot groups
were numbered today: 9739 (S13W02), 9740 (S06E56), and 9741
(N07E72).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels with isolated M-class flares likely. There
will also be a chance for a major flare from Regions 9727 or 9733.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at mostly quiet levels, with an isolated
unsettled period at 12/21-2400 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions on the first day of
the forecast period. The CME produced by the X6.2 flare should
impact earth late on the second day. The impact is expected to
produce active conditions on the second and third days. Imagery from
the LASCO/SOHO spacecraft show that most of the CME is directed in a
predominately Northerly direction, hence the expected effect on
Earth should be significantly less than if the CME was more directly
aimed toward Earth.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Dec a 16 Dec
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 70% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Dec 220 Previsto 14 Dec-16 Dec 220/220/210 Media de 90 Días 13 Dec 218
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Dec 008/012 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Dec 006/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec 012/015-020/020-025/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Dec a 16 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 15% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 40% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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