Viendo archivo del miércoles, 2 enero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jan 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 002 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Jan 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 9754
(S07W68) generated the largest flare of the day, producing an M2/1n
flare at 02/1252 UTC. This region grew in magnetic complexity
during the period and exhibits a much tighter spot cluster than was
seen yesterday in white light. Regions 9764 (N14W50) and 9751
(N04W89) also contributed to today's activity producing small
C-class flares. Region 9767 (S23E36) has been relatively quiescent
through the period producing a lone optical Sf flare. A decrease in
area was seen in spot coverage during the period, although magnetic
structure remained unchanged in Region 9767. New Regions 9769
(S19W33), 9770 (N08W29), and 9771 (S20E17) were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 30/0245 UTC reached a
maximum flux of 108 pfu at 31/1620 UTC. This event has been on a
very slow decrease since max and is at 33 pfu at the time of this
writing.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than
10 MeV proton event is expected to end late on day two of the
forecast.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Jan a 05 Jan
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 99% | 99% | 10% |
| PCAF | in progress | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Jan 231 Previsto 03 Jan-05 Jan 230/230/225 Media de 90 Días 02 Jan 220
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Jan 004/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Jan 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Jan-05 Jan 005/008-006/008-006/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Jan a 05 Jan
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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