Viendo archivo del martes, 19 febrero 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Feb 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 050 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Feb 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region
9830 (S20E07) produced a long-duration M1/Sf flare at 18/2115 UTC as
well as isolated C-class subflares, none of which were associated
with significant radio emission. Region 9830 continued to gradually
develop with increased area and magnetic complexity. Most of the
region's complexity lies within its large leader spots where
multiple, strong magnetic delta configurations have formed over the
past few days. Region 9825 (N16W66) produced an impulsive C-class
flare as it continued to gradually decay. The remaining regions were
unremarkable. New Region 9833 (N11W16) was numbered.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
at moderate levels. Isolated low-level M-class flares are likely.
Region 9830 could produce an isolated major flare during the period.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to active levels.
Unsettled to active conditions occurred during 18/2100 - 2400 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
Geomagnetic field activity is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Region 9830 provides a
slight chance for a proton flare during the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Feb a 22 Feb
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | Yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Feb 189 Previsto 20 Feb-22 Feb 195/200/205 Media de 90 Días 19 Feb 222
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Feb 006/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Feb 007/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Feb-22 Feb 007/008-007/008-007/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Feb a 22 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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