Viendo archivo del lunes, 15 abril 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Apr 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 105 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Apr 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity was moderate. The Region complex
9893/9901 (N20W75) continues to flare as it approaches the west
limb. The largest was an M3/Sf at 15/0014 UTC. This region appears
to retain its mixed polarities and sunspot delta configuration.
Region 9906 (S15W14) also produced M-class activity, a long-duration
M1/Sf at 15/0355 UTC. An apparent Earth-directed CME is visible in
LASCO coronagraph images following this flare. Decay in Region 9906
since yesterday is most notable as fragmentation in the trailer
sunspot complex. Region 9907 (S04E21) continues to develop but has
not yet produced significant activity.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Additional M-class flares are possible in Regions 9906 and
the 9893/9901 complex, as is an isolated major flare.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet unsettled for the first day of the forecast
period. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on days two and
three in response to the CME mentioned in Part IA.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Apr a 18 Apr
| Clase M | 75% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| Protón | 10% | 05% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Apr 203 Previsto 16 Apr-18 Apr 200/190/185 Media de 90 Días 15 Apr 202
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Apr 008/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Apr 005/006 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Apr-18 Apr 008/008-018/015-018/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Apr a 18 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 10% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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