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Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jun 18 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 169 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Jun 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z

IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar

IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z

IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica

III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Jun a 21 Jun

Clase M	25%	25%	25%
Clase X	01%	01%	01%
Protón	01%	01%	01%
PCAF	green

IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo

  Observado       18 Jun 143
  Previsto   19 Jun-21 Jun  145/150/150
  Media de 90 Días        18 Jun 177

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A

  Observado Afr/Ap 17 Jun  005/007
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 18 Jun  005/009
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 19 Jun-21 Jun  010/012-015/015-015/020

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Jun a 21 Jun

A. Latitudes Medias
Activo	15%	20%	20%
Tormenta Menor	05%	10%	10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa	01%	01%	01%

B. Latitudes Altas
Activo	20%	25%	30%
Tormenta Menor	10%	10%	15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa	01%	01%	05%

PLAIN This message is for users of the NOAA/SEC Space Weather Operations sunspot region numbers. As you may have noticed, region number 10000 was assigned on June 14. Space Weather operations is going through the sequence of Region numbers as 9998, 9999, 0000, 0001, and so on. SEC's product text discussions of the active regions will ignore the leading zeroes (for example, we will say 'Region number 5' rather than Region number '0005'). However, the Geoalert product, the Region Report product, as well as the USAF and IUWDS data exchange codes will preserve the 4 digit format. The necessity of using four digits is for operational purposes only. For historical purposes all regions beyond Region 9999 will be understood to be in a series of region numbers 10000 and higher.

All times in UTC

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