Viendo archivo del domingo, 21 julio 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jul 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 202 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jul 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity was high. The event in progress at issue
time yesterday, from behind the east limb near S10, reached the X3
level at 20/2130UTC. There was an associated type II sweep and
tenflare. The site of the activity has, as yet, failed to fully
appear, but should do so in the next 24 hours. Some plage and
faculae are now visible in that vicinity. Elsewhere, Regions 30
(N18W76) and 36 (S06W02) continue to impress in white light and
H-alpha, but have been relatively quiet. One new region, 38
(N17E51), was assigned.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Watch the east limb for more energetic activity over the
next three days.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels during the
period. Faster than normal solar wind, with some southward Bz,
brought periods of minor storm conditions to local nighttime
sectors. An enhancement in the greater than 10 MeV protons has
occurred, with current readings near 5 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV
electrons at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels for a few
hours near midday.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to mildly active for the next three days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jul a 24 Jul
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Jul 183 Previsto 22 Jul-24 Jul 185/185/185 Media de 90 Días 21 Jul 161
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jul 013/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Jul 015/018 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 010/012-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jul a 24 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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