Viendo archivo del viernes, 26 julio 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Jul 26 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 207 Publicado el 2200Z a las 26 Jul 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 25-2100Z hasta 26-2100Z Solar activity has been high. Region 44 (S21E17)
produced five M-class events. The largest was an M8/2n at 26/2112
UTC. It also produced an M4/1n at 26/0010 UTC with an associated
250 sfu Tenflare and a long duration M1/Sn at 26/0829 UTC. This
region has grown significantly and is currently 430 millionths of
white light with 42 spots and a magnetic beta-gamma configuration.
This region is located to the southwest of Region 39 (S16E22) which
has an area of 940 millionths of white light and a magnetic delta
configuration. Three new regions were numbered today as Regions 48
(N18E52), 49 (S06W30) and 50 (S07E36).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Isolated major flares are possible from Regions 39 and
44.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 25-2100Z a 26-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that started 22/0655 UTC is still in progress with the
tentative maximum of 28 sfu at 23/1025 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Isolated active conditions are
possible as a result of the activity from the past several days.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to drop below
threshold within the next 24 hours.
III. Probabilidades del evento 27 Jul a 29 Jul
| Clase M | 80% | 80% | 80% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 26 Jul 242 Previsto 27 Jul-29 Jul 225/225/220 Media de 90 Días 26 Jul 163
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 25 Jul 009/013 Estimado Afr/Ap 26 Jul 012/013 Previsto Afr/Ap 27 Jul-29 Jul 010/015-010/010-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 27 Jul a 29 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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