Viendo archivo del lunes, 19 agosto 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Aug 19 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 231 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Aug 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 69
(S08W30) produced an M2/Sf at 19/1034 UTC. Region 69 remains
relatively unchanged with multiple magnetic delta configurations.
Further developments of the M2.2/1b at 18/2125 UTC mentioned in
yesterday's forecast indicates a partial halo CME, Type II (860
km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps. Region 79 (S22W08) continues to
show gradual growth. New Region 85 (S11E69) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 69 has the potential for major flare
activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storming levels.
Minor storming occurred early in the summary period. A sustained
northern Bz began at around 19/0800 UTC bringing unsettled to active
conditions.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Aug a 22 Aug
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 19 Aug 237 Previsto 20 Aug-22 Aug 245/240/230 Media de 90 Días 19 Aug 168
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 18 Aug 015/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 19 Aug 021/025 Previsto Afr/Ap 20 Aug-22 Aug 012/012-010/010-012/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Aug a 22 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 05% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 25% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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