Viendo archivo del domingo, 29 septiembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Sep 29 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 272 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Sep 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 134 (N12E11)
produced an M2/2n event at 29/0639 UTC and a C9/1n at 29/1449 UTC.
This region has grown slightly in white light coverage and retains a
delta magnetic configuration. Region 125 (S09W78) produced a long
duration C7/0f event at 29/0859 UTC. Two new regions were numbered
today as Region's 136 (S27W36) and 137 (S16E50).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 134 has the potential for producing M-class
activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. Active conditions are possible
for September 29 - October 1 due to a coronal hole passage.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Sep a 02 Oct
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 29 Sep 138 Previsto 30 Sep-02 Oct 140/145/145 Media de 90 Días 29 Sep 179
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 28 Sep 005/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 29 Sep 008/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct 015/015-010/015-010/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Sep a 02 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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