Viendo archivo del miércoles, 9 octubre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Oct 09 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 282 Publicado el 2200Z a las 09 Oct 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 08-2100Z hasta 09-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 139 (N11W19) continues
to be relatively stable in sunspot structure and magnetic
complexity. It has not produced significant flare activity for three
days. Several new sunspot regions were numbered: 146 (S10E25), 147
(S03E39), 148 (S21E70), 149 (N16E72), 150 (S09W05), and 151
(S14E50).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 139 remains the most likely candidate for
producing M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 08-2100Z a 09-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
most active periods were from 10/0600-1200 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the first day of the forecast
period, becoming quiet to unsettled on day two and three. Isolated
substorms remain a possibility.
III. Probabilidades del evento 10 Oct a 12 Oct
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 09 Oct 167 Previsto 10 Oct-12 Oct 170/175/180 Media de 90 Días 09 Oct 180
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 08 Oct 019/034 Estimado Afr/Ap 09 Oct 016/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct 015/015-010/010-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 10 Oct a 12 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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