Viendo archivo del sábado, 30 noviembre 2002
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Nov 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 334 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Nov 2002IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity was very low during the past 24 hours.
Today's only flare activity was a B8/Sf at 1125 UTC from newly
numbered Region 209 (S20E62). Region 207 (S19E31) continues to be
the largest group on the disk but was quiet and stable. New Region
210 (S09W77) emerged during the past 24 hours.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
There is a slight chance for an M-class event from Region 207.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was predominantly unsettled to active. Solar
wind speeds continue to be enhanced, and the Z-component of the
interplanetary magnetic field continues to hold at weakly negative
values. The solar wind signatures are consistent with a high speed
coronal hole driven solar wind stream. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active during the next three days due to
continued effects from the high speed solar wind stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Dec a 03 Dec
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Nov 146 Previsto 01 Dec-03 Dec 145/155/160 Media de 90 Días 30 Nov 170
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Nov 009/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Nov 015/017 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Dec-03 Dec 015/015-015/020-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Dec a 03 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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