Viendo archivo del jueves, 19 diciembre 2002

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2002 Dec 19 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 353 Publicado el 2200Z a las 19 Dec 2002

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 18-2100Z hasta 19-2100Z

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 226 (S28W28) produced multiple low level C-class flares. The largest optically correlated event was a C2.7/Sf flare that occurred at 19/0035 UTC. Magnetic analysis of this region depicts a complex delta structure continuing in the intermediate cluster of penumbral spots. Region 229 (N19W03) was quiescent through the period. White-light analysis shows decay in areal coverage as a weak gamma magnetic structure remains evident in the central portion of this region's spot complex. Region 230 (S08E32) has continued to grow and now has a weak gamma magnetic structure seen in the trailing portion of the region. This region was also responsible for minor C-class flare activity early in the period. New Region 231 (S25E13) was assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate levels. Regions 226, 229, and 230 all are capable of producing M-class flares. There is a slight chance of a major flare occurring in Region 226.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 18-2100Z a 19-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. A favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole and the resulting high speed stream are responsible for the elevated conditions.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels through day one of the forecast period, becoming predominantly unsettled to active levels on day two and returning to quiet to unsettled conditions by day three.
III. Probabilidades del evento 20 Dec a 22 Dec
Clase M55%55%55%
Clase X10%10%10%
Protón05%05%05%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       19 Dec 193
  Previsto   20 Dec-22 Dec  195/195/185
  Media de 90 Días        19 Dec 166
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 18 Dec  002/006
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 19 Dec  020/025
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 20 Dec-22 Dec  015/020-010/012-008/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 20 Dec a 22 Dec
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo30%20%15%
Tormenta Menor15%05%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo35%25%20%
Tormenta Menor25%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%01%

All times in UTC

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