Viendo archivo del sábado, 3 mayo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 123 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 May 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 349 (S14W34)
remains the largest region on the disk. This region has decreased
slightly in white light area and spot count but retains its
beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 349 has the potential for continued C-class
flares as well as an isolated M-class event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at high levels
today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to unsettled conditions for 04 May.
Unsettled to active conditions are possible for 05 May-06 May as a
result of activity from a recurrent coronal hole.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 May a 06 May
| Clase M | 60% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 May 148 Previsto 04 May-06 May 135/130/125 Media de 90 Días 03 May 129
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 May 011/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 May 013/012 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 May-06 May 010/012-015/015-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 May a 06 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 10% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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