Viendo archivo del miércoles, 28 mayo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 148 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 May 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels today. Region
365 (S07W32) produced two X-class flares early in the period. The
first was an X1.3/2b flare that occurred at 27/2307Z with an
associated Tenflare (910 sfu), Type IV, and Type II (estimated shock
velocity of 607 km/s.) radio sweep. The second, larger flare, an
X3.6 x-ray event which occurred at 28/0027Z that also had an
associated Tenflare (1600 sfu), Type IV, and Type II (estimated 392
km/s.) radio sweep. Both flares had associated CME's (based on
LASCO imagery) that appear to be Earth directed. This region
continues to show good growth and remains a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic complex. Little activity was noted from the rest of the
disk. Region 374 (S22W59) was newly assigned today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Region 365 is very capable of producing
major flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at active to major storm levels. A
recurrent high speed stream coronal hole is responsible for the
elevated levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes have been
just under event threshold levels for the past several hours of this
period. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous
orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly active to minor storm levels through
the forecast period. Transient activity from today's X-flares is
expected by day two of the interval with resulting major to severe
storm conditions possible. The greater than 10 MeV proton fluxes at
geosynchronous orbit may reach threshold levels on day one of the
period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 May a 31 May
| Clase M | 75% | 75% | 75% |
| Clase X | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Protón | 80% | 50% | 25% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 May 130 Previsto 29 May-31 May 135/140/135 Media de 90 Días 28 May 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 May 018/026 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 May 025/038 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 May-31 May 025/025-040/050-015/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 May a 31 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 35% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 25% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 30% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 35% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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