Viendo archivo del sábado, 31 mayo 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 May 31 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 151 Publicado el 2200Z a las 31 May 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 30-2100Z hasta 31-2100Z Solar activity was high. Region 365 (S07W72) produced
an M9/2b flare at 31/0224 UTC. The flare was accompanied by a 1300
sfu radio burst at 2695 MHz, a Type II radio sweep, and a CME
observed by the SOHO spacecraft to be directed mostly towards the
southwest. This region also generated a few C-class subflares during
the past day. Further decay, mostly in penumbral area, is evident
since yesterday.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
moderate to high. Region 365 may produce yet another major flare
before it passes the west solar limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 30-2100Z a 31-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. The
most disturbed period occurred from 31/0300-0600 UTC and has since
been quiet to unsettled at most locations. A greater than 10 MeV
proton event started at 31/0440 UTC, reached a 27 pfu peak at
31/0645 UTC, and ended at 31/1440 UTC.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled to active with a chance of isolated
storm conditions at local nighttime. The field may become
increasingly disturbed by 03 June due to a recurrent coronal hole
high-speed stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Jun a 03 Jun
| Clase M | 80% | 50% | 10% |
| Clase X | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| Protón | 20% | 10% | 01% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 31 May 113 Previsto 01 Jun-03 Jun 110/100/090 Media de 90 Días 31 May 125
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 30 May 036/049 Estimado Afr/Ap 31 May 025/040 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Jun-03 Jun 015/025-015/015-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Jun a 03 Jun
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 30% | 60% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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