Viendo archivo del sábado, 21 junio 2003

Informe actividad solar

Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jun 21 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 172 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jun 2003

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z

IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar

IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z

IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica

III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jun a 24 Jun

Clase M	30%	30%	30%
Clase X	10%	10%	10%
Protón	05%	05%	05%
PCAF	yellow

IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo

  Observado       21 Jun 115
  Previsto   22 Jun-24 Jun  115/115/115
  Media de 90 Días        21 Jun 126

V. Índices Geomagnéticos A

  Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jun  010/012
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 21 Jun  018/025
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 22 Jun-24 Jun  012/015-015/015-012/012

VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jun a 24 Jun

A. Latitudes Medias
Activo	25%	35%	25%
Tormenta Menor	10%	20%	10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa	01%	05%	01%

B. Latitudes Altas
Activo	35%	35%	30%
Tormenta Menor	20%	20%	15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa	05%	05%	05%

PLAIN K-Indices: On 16 June, it was determined that a scaling problem exists with the Boulder magnetometer instrument. While this problem, and its fix are being investigated the primary instrument for Boulder K-indices has been switched to the Boulder USGS (via Domsat) magnetometer, effective 1500 UTC on 16 June. GOES Protons: To ensure continued operational monitoring of important energetic particle data, it is necessary to reassign primary/secondary designations for the GOES Space Environment Monitor (SEM) detectors. GOES 11 (113W) is now the primary satellite for protons. GOES 12 will continue as the primary satellite for magnetometer, X-ray, and electron measurements. GOES 10 (135W) will be the secondary satellite for all SEM sensors - magnetometer, X-ray, and energetic particles. Because of the degraded state of the proton data on GOES-10, its designation as the secondary source for proton data is a short-term solution. More permanent solutions have been identified and are being evaluated. Users will be notified when we define and schedule a permanent fix. Further details can be found at http://www.sec.noaa.gov/GOES.html. 99999

All times in UTC

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