Viendo archivo del jueves, 10 julio 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Jul 10 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 191 Publicado el 2200Z a las 10 Jul 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 09-2100Z hasta 10-2100Z Solar activity has been moderate. Region 397 (N12W87)
produced two M-class flares, an M2.0 at 09/2238Z, and an M3.6 at
10/1412Z with an associated Type II radio sweep. Region 397 appears
to be decaying as it passes the west limb. No new regions were
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate, with a chance of isolated M-class flares from Regions
397 or 400.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 09-2100Z a 10-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels. The
greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active to minor
storm conditions on days one and two due to elevated solar wind
speeds as a coronal hole rotates into geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 11 Jul a 13 Jul
| Clase M | 50% | 45% | 40% |
| Clase X | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 10 Jul 123 Previsto 11 Jul-13 Jul 130/125/120 Media de 90 Días 10 Jul 124
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 09 Jul 003/006 Estimado Afr/Ap 10 Jul 006/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 11 Jul-13 Jul 020/025-015/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 11 Jul a 13 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 50% | 50% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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