Viendo archivo del martes, 2 septiembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 02 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 245 Publicado el 2200Z a las 02 Sep 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 01-2100Z hasta 02-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. No significant
changes have been noted for the active regions on the visible disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low, with C-class flares possible from Regions 448 (N19W34)
and 450 (S18E14).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 01-2100Z a 02-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to active, due to the effects of
high speed solar wind from a geoeffective coronal hole. Solar wind
speed peaked above 550 km/s during the period, and steadily declined
to 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit was at high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active. Isolated minor storm conditions are
possible from a high speed solar wind stream.
III. Probabilidades del evento 03 Sep a 05 Sep
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 02 Sep 106 Previsto 03 Sep-05 Sep 115/125/130 Media de 90 Días 02 Sep 127
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 01 Sep 011/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 02 Sep 014/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 03 Sep-05 Sep 020/025-015/020-015/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 03 Sep a 05 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 15% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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