Viendo archivo del miércoles, 24 septiembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 24 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 267 Publicado el 2200Z a las 24 Sep 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 23-2100Z hasta 24-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 464 (N04E22)
continues to be the most active region. It has increased in
activity over the last 24 hours, producing a series of minor C-class
flares, and elevating the solar X-ray background to approximately
the B5 level. A 20-degree disappearing solar filament lifted off at
0532 UTC centered near S19W23. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to remain
low. There's a slight chance for M-class activity from Region 464.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 23-2100Z a 24-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm levels. A
geoeffective coronal hole has maintained a high-speed solar wind
stream, and sustained elevated geomagnetic field activity for the
last couple of days. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels for the next day.
Beginning approximately in the next 36 hours, the solar wind speeds
should begin to relax in response to the passing of the coronal
hole. But, within the next two days, the disappearing solar
filament ejecta should impact the geomagnetic field causing a rapid
increase in activity to minor storm levels with isolated periods of
major storming possible.
III. Probabilidades del evento 25 Sep a 27 Sep
| Clase M | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 24 Sep 134 Previsto 25 Sep-27 Sep 135/130/130 Media de 90 Días 24 Sep 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 23 Sep 010/017 Estimado Afr/Ap 24 Sep 030/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 25 Sep-27 Sep 015/020-015/015-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 25 Sep a 27 Sep
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 20% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 40% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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