Viendo archivo del martes, 30 septiembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Sep 30 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 273 Publicado el 2200Z a las 30 Sep 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 29-2100Z hasta 30-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 464 (N04W62) was
responsible for numerous C-class flares, including a C5.4/1f at
29/2146 UTC. New Region 471 (S07E63) was numbered today. It
emerged from behind the east limb and produced a C4.9/Sf at 30/2021
UTC.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 464 has the potential for C- and M-class
flares. Region 471 may also produce C- and isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 29-2100Z a 30-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to remain at quiet levels. There exists an isolated chance
of unsettled to active conditions from a CME arrival related to an
erupting filament on 28 Sep.
III. Probabilidades del evento 01 Oct a 03 Oct
| Clase M | 45% | 45% | 45% |
| Clase X | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 30 Sep 133 Previsto 01 Oct-03 Oct 130/125/125 Media de 90 Días 30 Sep 121
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 29 Sep 004/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 30 Sep 004/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct 010/015-010/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 01 Oct a 03 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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