Viendo archivo del miércoles, 22 octubre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Oct 22 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 295 Publicado el 2200Z a las 22 Oct 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 21-2100Z hasta 22-2100Z Solar activity increased to high levels today. The
disk and limb were very active during the period. Region 486
(S16E81) which was newly numbered today, produced several M-class
flares over the interval. The largest were an M9.8 x-ray event that
occurred at 22/2007 UTC, an M3.7, and two M1.7's. Region 484
(N04E13) produced an M1.4/Sn at 1511 UTC and an M1.2/Sn at 1601 UTC.
Moreover, 2 separate filament eruptions were seen on SOHO/EIT
imagery from the vicinity of this region spawning a partial halo CME
that appears to be Earth directed. Magnetic field remains
extremely complex, a beta-gamma-delta (with several delta
structures) through this north-south oriented spot cluster.
A slight growth in penumbral coverage was noted during the period.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate to high levels. Regions 484 and 486 are both capable of
producing isolated major flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 21-2100Z a 22-2100Z
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to major storm levels
today. A recurrent coronal hole high speed stream is responsible
for the elevated conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly active levels through day one of the
forecast period. The partial halo CME from today is expected to
arrive mid-day on the 24th of October and may produce periods of
major storming. Day three should see a return to unsettled to
active conditions.
III. Probabilidades del evento 23 Oct a 25 Oct
| Clase M | 70% | 70% | 70% |
| Clase X | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Protón | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| PCAF | yellow | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 22 Oct 154 Previsto 23 Oct-25 Oct 160/165/170 Media de 90 Días 22 Oct 116
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 21 Oct 028/039 Estimado Afr/Ap 22 Oct 020/038 Previsto Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct 020/030-040/045-015/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 23 Oct a 25 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 40% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 25% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 25% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 40% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 15% | 30% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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