Viendo archivo del miércoles, 3 diciembre 2003
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2003 Dec 03 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 337 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Dec 2003IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z Solar activity was at moderate levels. An isolated M1
flare was observed at S19 on the southwest limb at 02/2300Z. The
majority of activity over the past twenty-four hours has been from
the southwest limb with two active latitudes; S13 and S19. A C2
flare occurred at S13 on the west limb at 03/2008Z. Region 517
(S06E34) appears to have entered a decay phase with a decrease in
area coverage down to 210 millionths. New Region 518 (S22E10) was
numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels. Isolated moderate level activity is possible from the
southwest limb.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event that began on 02 December at 1505Z is still in
progress. Up to this point, peak flux levels have reached 86 pfu at
02/1730Z.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels. Coronal hole high speed
stream effects are expected to produce active conditions on 04-05
December.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Dec a 06 Dec
| Clase M | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 25% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 03 Dec 124 Previsto 04 Dec-06 Dec 120/115/110 Media de 90 Días 03 Dec 136
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 02 Dec 006/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 03 Dec 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 008/012-015/020-020/030
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Dec a 06 Dec
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 25% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 10% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 05% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 35% | 50% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 20% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 10% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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