Viendo archivo del martes, 27 enero 2004

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jan 27 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 027 Publicado el 2200Z a las 27 Jan 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 26-2100Z hasta 27-2100Z

Solar activity was very low. Only a few, low-level, B-class flares were observed. The solar disk is currently devoid of sunspots.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low. There may be a gradual increase in background and activity levels with the return of old Region 536 (latitude S11) tomorrow (28 January).
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 26-2100Z a 27-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with one active period from 0300-0600 UTC. Solar wind signatures indicate the crossing of a solar sector boundary, with magnetic polarity switching from a towards (negative) orientation to an away (positive) configuration between 0500-1300 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active for the next 24 hours (28 January) as a positive polarity coronal hole is rotating into geoeffective position. A decline to mostly unsettled with possible isolated active periods is expected for the second and third days (29-30 January).
III. Probabilidades del evento 28 Jan a 30 Jan
Clase M01%01%01%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       27 Jan 094
  Previsto   28 Jan-30 Jan  100/100/110
  Media de 90 Días        27 Jan 128
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 26 Jan  009/017
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 27 Jan  010/015
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 28 Jan-30 Jan  015/020-010/015-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 28 Jan a 30 Jan
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%25%25%
Tormenta Menor30%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo45%35%35%
Tormenta Menor30%15%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%05%05%

All times in UTC

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