Viendo archivo del viernes, 13 febrero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Feb 13 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 044 Publicado el 2200Z a las 13 Feb 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 12-2100Z hasta 13-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. X-ray flux remains
at background levels. Two new regions were numbered today: Region
557 (S11W32) and Region 558 (S15E36).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low. Region 554 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 12-2100Z a 13-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been predominantly active, with one period
of isolated minor storming. The geomagnetic field is still under
the influence of high speed solar wind stream from a geoeffective
coronal hole, although solar wind speeds have begun to subside. The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on 14 February, with isolated
minor storming possible. Activity should decrease to quiet or
unsettled levels on 15 and 16 February as the coronal hole rotates
out of geoeffective position.
III. Probabilidades del evento 14 Feb a 16 Feb
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 13 Feb 108 Previsto 14 Feb-16 Feb 110/110/110 Media de 90 Días 13 Feb 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 12 Feb 016/028 Estimado Afr/Ap 13 Feb 018/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 14 Feb-16 Feb 015/020-012/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 14 Feb a 16 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 45% | 40% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 30% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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