Viendo archivo del domingo, 15 febrero 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Feb 15 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 046 Publicado el 2200Z a las 15 Feb 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 14-2100Z hasta 15-2100Z Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 554
(S09W28) is in slow decay and has been quiet. Region 559 (N08W56)
produced occasional point brightenings and isolated B-class flare
activity. New Regions 560 (S16E30) and 561 (N02E64) were numbered
today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to continue
at very low levels. There is a slight chance for a C-class flare
from Regions 554 and 559.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 14-2100Z a 15-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at predominantly unsettled to minor storm
levels. This disturbance began on 12 February following the onset of
a high speed coronal hole stream. Solar wind speeds this period
generally ranged from 650 to 700 km/s. The greater than 2MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit again reached high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to active levels with isolated
minor storm periods possible through 16 February. Expect quiet to
unsettled conditions with isolated active periods on 17 and 18
February as the high speed stream subsides.
III. Probabilidades del evento 16 Feb a 18 Feb
| Clase M | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 15 Feb 102 Previsto 16 Feb-18 Feb 100/100/100 Media de 90 Días 15 Feb 120
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 14 Feb 012/018 Estimado Afr/Ap 15 Feb 018/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 16 Feb-18 Feb 015/020-012/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 16 Feb a 18 Feb
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 15% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 35% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
< < Ir a la visión general diaria
Últimas noticias
miércoles, 31 diciembre 2025
Happy New Year! Celebrate with an M7.1 solar flare!
domingo, 7 diciembre 2025
M8.1 solar flare with earth-directed CME
lunes, 1 diciembre 2025
X1.9 solar flare, Coronal hole faces Earth
Últimos mensajes del foro
AR 4336 24Coronal Hole 12/13 19Incoming & Unnumbered Active Regions 80Ask your obscure/"stupid" space weather questions. 487AR 4334 15
Más temasApoye a SpaceWeatherLive.com!
A lot of people come to SpaceWeatherLive to follow the Solar activity or if there is a chance to see the aurora, but with more traffic comes higher costs to keep the servers online. If you like SpaceWeatherLive and want to support the project you can choose a subscription for an ad-free site or consider a donation. With your help we can keep SpaceWeatherLive online!
Hechos clima espacial
| Último evento clase X | 08/12/2025 | X1.1 |
| Último evento clase M | 31/12/2025 | M7.11 |
| Últimas tormentas geomagnéticas | 02/01/2026 | Kp5 (G1) |
| Días sin manchas | |
|---|---|
| Último día sin manchas | 08/06/2022 |
| Promedio de manchas solares mensuales | |
|---|---|
| diciembre 2025 | 124 +32.2 |
| enero 2026 | 112.1 -11.9 |
| Last 30 days | 105.6 -3.7 |