Viendo archivo del sábado, 6 marzo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Mar 06 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 066 Publicado el 2200Z a las 06 Mar 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 05-2100Z hasta 06-2100Z Solar activity increased to moderate levels today.
Region 570 (S13E70) produced an M1 x-ray flare at 06/1217Z.
Multiple lesser C-class flares were also observed throughout the
day. A cluster of trailing sunspots became visible early in the
period. There is a significant distance between the lead and
trailing sunspots (over 15 heliospheric degrees) although initial
magnetic analysis suggest that all features associated to plague
field are one region. Region 567 (S12W55) produced two low level
C-class flares early in the period. The sunspot coverage increased
since yesterday although the weak delta complex separated into two
distinct sunspots today, indicating some decay in magnetic field
structure. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 05-2100Z a 06-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater
than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high
levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through 7 and 8 March. The onset
of an intense solar sector boundary crossing is anticipated on 9
March, which precedes a recurrent high speed coronal hole stream.
Active to minor storm conditions are expected with the onset.
III. Probabilidades del evento 07 Mar a 09 Mar
| Clase M | 50% | 50% | 50% |
| Clase X | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 06 Mar 105 Previsto 07 Mar-09 Mar 110/115/115 Media de 90 Días 06 Mar 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 05 Mar 004/008 Estimado Afr/Ap 06 Mar 004/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 07 Mar-09 Mar 005/008-005/008-015/025
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 07 Mar a 09 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 01% | 01% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 45% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 30% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 15% |
All times in UTC
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