Viendo archivo del domingo, 14 marzo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Mar 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 074 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Mar 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity was very low. Region 570 (S13W32)
produced occasional B-class activity including a B3 flare with an
associated 130 sfu Tenflare at 14/2035Z. This region continues to
slowly decay and the delta configuration that persisted for the past
several days is no longer evident. No other significant activity or
changes were observed.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. C-class activity is possible from Region 570.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Slightly elevated solar
wind speed with periods of sustained southward Bz produced the
disturbed conditions. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at high levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Mar a 17 Mar
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Mar 103 Previsto 15 Mar-17 Mar 100/100/105 Media de 90 Días 14 Mar 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Mar 010/015 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Mar 012/015 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Mar-17 Mar 008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Mar a 17 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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