Viendo archivo del jueves, 18 marzo 2004

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Mar 18 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 078 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Mar 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels today. Region 574 (S02E43) produced the largest flare of the period, an M1/Sf occurring at 18/0517Z. Multiple lesser B and C-class flares occurred in this region today. Sunspot area coverage continues to show a steady increase. Newly numbered Region 578 (N15E76) currently shows a single sunspot. Even so, several B and C-class flares were observed from this region today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 574 continues to be capable of producing M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. A brief active period was observed between 18/0000 and 0300Z at the middle latitudes. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels. 21 March may experience isolated active conditions due to the combination of a solar sector boundary crossing and the potential of a glancing blow from the C1 flare and related CME from yesterday.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Mar a 21 Mar
Clase M40%40%40%
Clase X05%05%05%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       18 Mar 115
  Previsto   19 Mar-21 Mar  120/120/115
  Media de 90 Días        18 Mar 112
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 17 Mar  005/006
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 18 Mar  007/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 19 Mar-21 Mar  006/008-010/012-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Mar a 21 Mar
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo10%20%20%
Tormenta Menor05%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%25%30%
Tormenta Menor05%10%15%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%05%10%

All times in UTC

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