Viendo archivo del domingo, 28 marzo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Mar 28 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 088 Publicado el 2200Z a las 28 Mar 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 27-2100Z hasta 28-2100Z Solar activity was low. Today's activity consisted of a
few, low-level C-class flares. Most of these were from Region 582
(N15E30) which is the largest region on the disk and appears to be
growing slowly. New Region 587 (S13E73) rotated into view today as a
bright, moderately sized (110 millionths) bipolar region.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low,
but there is a chance for an isolated M-class event sometime during
the next three days (28-30 March) with Region 582 the most likely
source for energetic activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 27-2100Z a 28-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was mostly unsettled to active, with a minor
storm period from 0300-0600 UTC. Solar wind data show the continued
presence of a high speed stream. There was an overall decreasing
trend in solar wind velocity: initial speeds around 900 km/s
declined to around 650 km/s by forecast issue time. Fluctuations in
the interplanetary magnetic field were weak (-6 to + 6 nT), and
disappeared altogether between 1300-2000 UTC. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next two days (28-29
March). A decrease to predominantly unsettled is expected by the
third day (30 March).
III. Probabilidades del evento 29 Mar a 31 Mar
| Clase M | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Clase X | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Protón | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 28 Mar 129 Previsto 29 Mar-31 Mar 125/120/120 Media de 90 Días 28 Mar 111
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 27 Mar 012/014 Estimado Afr/Ap 28 Mar 018/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 29 Mar-31 Mar 015/020-015/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 29 Mar a 31 Mar
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 30% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 25% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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