Viendo archivo del miércoles, 7 abril 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Apr 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 098 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Apr 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. Solar x-ray flux
remained at background levels throughout the period. Region 588
(S17E01) maintained its size, and is now in a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration. New Region 590 (S09W71) was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Region 588 still has the potential to produce C-and
isolated M-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed
at ACE began a steady decline at 06/2300 UTC and is now at
approximately 450 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active, with periods of minor storm
conditions possible on day one and two (8-9 April). Two CMEs,
associated with solar flares on 6 and 7 April, may cause activity in
Earth's geomagnetic field. Geomagnetic activity should subside to
unsettled levels on day three (10 April).
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Apr a 10 Apr
| Clase M | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Apr 098 Previsto 08 Apr-10 Apr 105/105/100 Media de 90 Días 07 Apr 110
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Apr 017/021 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Apr 010/010 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Apr-10 Apr 025/030-015/020-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Apr a 10 Apr
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 20% | 10% | 10% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 35% | 35% | 35% |
| Tormenta Menor | 35% | 30% | 25% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 30% | 25% | 20% |
All times in UTC
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