Viendo archivo del lunes, 17 mayo 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 May 17 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 138 Publicado el 2200Z a las 17 May 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 16-2100Z hasta 17-2100Z Solar activity was low. Region 614 (S08W89) generated
the largest flare of the past day, a C7/Sf at 17/0417 UTC. Region
609 (S03W31) continued to decay and produced only B-class flares.
New Region 617 (S12E11) emerged on the disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
C-class flares are possible in Regions 609 and 614.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 16-2100Z a 17-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled. NOTE: The ACE spacecraft orbit
will bring ACE nearly in line with the Sun from about 30 May to 02 June, 2004. During that time solar radio noise is expected to interfere
with spacecraft telemetry resulting in the loss of solar wind
plasma, magnetic field, and particle data.
III. Probabilidades del evento 18 May a 20 May
| Clase M | 30% | 30% | 30% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 17 May 111 Previsto 18 May-20 May 110/110/105 Media de 90 Días 17 May 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 16 May 004/004 Estimado Afr/Ap 17 May 005/008 Previsto Afr/Ap 18 May-20 May 005/008-005/008-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 18 May a 20 May
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 25% | 25% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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