Viendo archivo del jueves, 3 junio 2004

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jun 03 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 155 Publicado el 2200Z a las 03 Jun 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 02-2100Z hasta 03-2100Z

Solar activity continues at very low levels. Region 621 (S14W01) contains minor magnetic mixing, but produced only small B-class activity. This period was actually highlighted by a number of CMEs, predominately off the west limb. The first of these occurred at around 02/2300Z from behind the northwest limb. An associated Type II radio sweep was observed with a shock speed of 658 km/s. Bright surging was observed on the west limb at 0830Z, which preceded another CME observed on LASCO imagery at 0950Z. The most impressive event of the period was a partial halo CME associated with a prominence eruption that began at around 03/1620Z. A Type II radio sweep (717 km/s) accompanied this CME. Much of the ejecta associated with this CME appeared to originate from behind the northwest limb.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Very low levels are expected through 4 June. C-class activity is possible on 5 and 6 June with the return of old active regions.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 02-2100Z a 03-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Solar wind speed remains elevated near 500 km/s, but IMF Bz was predominantly northward. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled levels. There is a chance for isolated active periods at high latitudes through 4 June. The current weak coronal hole high speed stream is expected to subside by 5 June.
III. Probabilidades del evento 04 Jun a 06 Jun
Clase M05%10%10%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFgreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       03 Jun 090
  Previsto   04 Jun-06 Jun  090/095/095
  Media de 90 Días        03 Jun 104
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 02 Jun  009/011
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 03 Jun  009/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 04 Jun-06 Jun  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 04 Jun a 06 Jun
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo25%15%15%
Tormenta Menor05%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%20%20%
Tormenta Menor10%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%01%01%

All times in UTC

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