Viendo archivo del domingo, 18 julio 2004

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jul 18 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 200 Publicado el 2200Z a las 18 Jul 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 17-2100Z hasta 18-2100Z

Solar activity remained at high levels today. Region 649 (S10E00) produced five M-class events, all of which occurred in a constricted area around the delta structure in the trailing portion of the spot group. The M-class flares chronologically occurred with an M2/1f at 17/2131Z, an M1 x-ray at 17/2308Z, an M2/1f at 18/0035Z, an M1/Sf at 18/0257Z, and an M1/1f at 18/1713Z. Weak radio bursts accompanied many of today's events while LASCO imagery depicted only faint CME signatures in association with the flare activity observed during the period. Magnetically, Region 649 remains a beta-gamma-delta spot group. Region 652 (N05E58) has fully rotated into view today and is currently measured in white light at over 1300 millionths of spot area coverage. Several C-class flares were observed during the period and a strong delta structure is evident in the intermediate cluster of spots. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate to high levels. Region 649 and 652 are both capable of producing major flare level activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 17-2100Z a 18-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at predominantly unsettled levels throughout the period. Isolated active to minor storm conditions are possible on 19 and 20 July mostly at higher latitudes due to the potential for transient passages from the major flare activity seen from Region 649 during the past several days.
III. Probabilidades del evento 19 Jul a 21 Jul
Clase M80%80%80%
Clase X40%40%40%
Protón20%20%20%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       18 Jul 155
  Previsto   19 Jul-21 Jul  150/150/145
  Media de 90 Días        18 Jul 098
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 17 Jul  013/024
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 18 Jul  008/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 19 Jul-21 Jul  010/015-010/015-008/012
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 19 Jul a 21 Jul
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor10%10%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa05%05%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo30%30%25%
Tormenta Menor15%15%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%10%05%

All times in UTC

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