Viendo archivo del miércoles, 21 julio 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jul 21 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 203 Publicado el 2200Z a las 21 Jul 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 20-2100Z hasta 21-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 649 (S10W41)
produced a C6.6/1f at 21/0034 UTC. Region 652 produced several
C-class flares, including a C8.9/1f at 21/0521 UTC. Region 649 was
stable in size and decreased in magnetic complexity to a beta-gamma
configuration. Region 652 increased signficantly in size over the
period, to 2010 millionths in white light, although most of the
growth was observed in the trailing penumbral field. The region's
magnetic class continues to be beta-gamma-delta, but all of the
magnetic complexity is in the northern part of the leader spots. No
new regions were numbered on the visible disk.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly moderate. However, there is still a possibility for
major flare activity from Region 652.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 20-2100Z a 21-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled tomorrow (22 July), with active to
minor storm conditions expected on day two (23 July) from the
possible effects of a CME observed on LASCO imagery on 20 July.
Geomagnetic activity should return to quiet to unsettled conditions
on 24 July.
III. Probabilidades del evento 22 Jul a 24 Jul
| Clase M | 65% | 65% | 65% |
| Clase X | 20% | 20% | 20% |
| Protón | 10% | 10% | 15% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 21 Jul 172 Previsto 22 Jul-24 Jul 175/170/160 Media de 90 Días 21 Jul 101
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 20 Jul 008/009 Estimado Afr/Ap 21 Jul 005/007 Previsto Afr/Ap 22 Jul-24 Jul 010/010-025/025-010/015
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 22 Jul a 24 Jul
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 40% | 20% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 25% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 15% | 05% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 25% | 40% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 15% | 30% | 20% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 10% | 20% | 10% |
All times in UTC
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