Viendo archivo del jueves, 29 julio 2004

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Jul 29 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 211 Publicado el 2200Z a las 29 Jul 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 28-2100Z hasta 29-2100Z

Solar activity was at moderate levels today. Region 652 (N08W89) produced the largest event of the period, an M2 x-ray flare that occurred at 29/0006Z. Although, the most significant event during the period was a long duration C2 x-ray flare. There was an associated partial halo CME with this flare that may result in an glancing blow from the anticipated transient passage. The beta-gamma magnetic structure remains unchanged as Region 652 rotates beyond the solar west limb. Region 654 (N08W02) was quiescent today and is the only other spotted active region on the visible disk. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to moderate levels. Region 652 may yet produce another M-class flare before rotating completely beyond the solar west limb through day one (30 July). Expect activity to decrease to very low to low levels by 31 July.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 28-2100Z a 29-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm levels throughout the period. The elevated conditions are expected due to the anticipated shock passages from the CME activity seen on LASCO imagery from the long duration C4 that occurred early yesterday and the C2 that occurred today.
III. Probabilidades del evento 30 Jul a 01 Aug
Clase M40%05%01%
Clase X10%05%01%
Protón10%05%01%
PCAFyellow
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       29 Jul 100
  Previsto   30 Jul-01 Aug  095/090/085
  Media de 90 Días        29 Jul 106
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 28 Jul  011/014
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 29 Jul  008/010
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 30 Jul-01 Aug  020/030-015/020-015/020
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 30 Jul a 01 Aug
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo35%30%30%
Tormenta Menor20%10%10%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa10%05%05%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo45%35%35%
Tormenta Menor25%20%20%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa15%10%10%

All times in UTC

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