Viendo archivo del sábado, 7 agosto 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Aug 07 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 220 Publicado el 2200Z a las 07 Aug 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 06-2100Z hasta 07-2100Z Solar activity has been very low. The daily consensus
for Region 655 (S10W38) and 656 (S13E58) have them both exceeding
200 millionths of white light coverage with a magnetic beta
configuration. These regions remain fairly stable only producing
low level B-class flares. A new region was numbered today as Region
658 (S06E50).
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be very
low to low. Regions 655 and 656 could produce an isolated C-class
event.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 06-2100Z a 07-2100Z
The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to active levels with a
period of minor storm conditions observed at 07/0900 UTC. Solar
wind speed has increased from around 340 km/s yesterday to above 460
km/s today and the IMF Bz has fluctuated southward as far as -14 nT.
The conditions seem to be influenced by a coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated periods of active
conditions.
III. Probabilidades del evento 08 Aug a 10 Aug
| Clase M | 10% | 10% | 10% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 07 Aug 095 Previsto 08 Aug-10 Aug 100/100/105 Media de 90 Días 07 Aug 106
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 06 Aug 003/007 Estimado Afr/Ap 07 Aug 015/020 Previsto Afr/Ap 08 Aug-10 Aug 010/015-010/015-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 08 Aug a 10 Aug
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 05% | 05% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 20% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Menor | 10% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 01% |
All times in UTC
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