Viendo archivo del jueves, 14 octubre 2004
Informe actividad solar
Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Oct 14 2200 UTCPreparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com
Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica
SDF Número 288 Publicado el 2200Z a las 14 Oct 2004IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 13-2100Z hasta 14-2100Z Solar activity has been low. Region 682 (S13E50)
produced a C1.0 at 13/2206Z and a C1.7 at 14/0329Z. Region 682 grew
to 245 millionths in white light, and maintained a beta magnetic
configuration. No new regions were numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 682 may produce C-class flares.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 13-2100Z a 14-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. Solar
wind speed at ACE continued a steady increase and ended the period
at 540 km/s. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active on 15 October, from the residual
effects of the coronal hole high speed solar wind stream. Activity
should subside to quiet to unsettled levels on 16-17 October.
III. Probabilidades del evento 15 Oct a 17 Oct
| Clase M | 15% | 15% | 15% |
| Clase X | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| Protón | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| PCAF | Green | ||
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
Observado 14 Oct 091 Previsto 15 Oct-17 Oct 090/090/090 Media de 90 Días 14 Oct 109
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
Observado Afr/Ap 13 Oct 017/035 Estimado Afr/Ap 14 Oct 020/030 Previsto Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct 012/015-010/012-010/010
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 15 Oct a 17 Oct
| A. Latitudes Medias | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 30% | 30% |
| Tormenta Menor | 20% | 10% | 05% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 01% | 01% | 01% |
| B. Latitudes Altas | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Activo | 40% | 40% | 40% |
| Tormenta Menor | 25% | 20% | 15% |
| Tormenta Mayor-Severa | 05% | 05% | 05% |
All times in UTC
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