Viendo archivo del miércoles, 20 octubre 2004

Informe actividad solar

Any mentioned solar flare in this report has a scaling factor applied by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Because of the SWPC scaling factor, solar flares are reported as 42% smaller than for the science quality data. The scaling factor has been removed from our archived solar flare data to reflect the true physical units.
Informe de actividad Solar-Geofísica 2004 Oct 20 2200 UTC
Preparado por NOAA © SWPC y procesado por SpaceWeatherLive.com

Informe conjunto USAF/NOAA de actividad Solar y Geofísica

SDF Número 294 Publicado el 2200Z a las 20 Oct 2004

IA. Análisis de regiones solares activas y de actividad desde 19-2100Z hasta 20-2100Z

Solar activity increased to moderate levels. Region 687 (N10E65) produced the largest flare of the period, an M2 x-ray flare that occurred at 20/1051Z. A CME was observed in LASCO imagery which does not appear to be Earth directed. This region remains too close to the eastern limb to fully discern magnetic complexity, although it does appear to contain a compact cluster of sunspots exhibiting both polarities. Region 682 (S13W33) produced multiple low level flares today, the largest was a C4/Sf which occurred at 20/0213Z. This region underwent moderate growth today. A beta-gamma magnetic structure is now evident and the sunspot area showed a modest increase during the period. Region 688 (S08W48) showed moderate growth over the period and was numbered today.
IB. Pronóstico de la actividad solar
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 682 and 687 both have a fair potential for the production of isolated M-class flare activity.
IIA. Resumen de la actividad geofísica 19-2100Z a 20-2100Z
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels. Active levels occurred in response to the sustained southward movement of the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field.
IIB. Pronóstico de la actividad geofísica
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the period.
III. Probabilidades del evento 21 Oct a 23 Oct
Clase M50%50%50%
Clase X01%01%01%
Protón01%01%01%
PCAFGreen
IV. Penticton 10.7cm flujo
  Observado       20 Oct 111
  Previsto   21 Oct-23 Oct  115/120/125
  Media de 90 Días        20 Oct 105
V. Índices Geomagnéticos A
  Observado Afr/Ap 19 Oct  003/004
  Estimado     Afr/Ap 20 Oct  006/012
  Previsto    Afr/Ap 21 Oct-23 Oct  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI. Probabilidades de Actividad Geomagnética 21 Oct a 23 Oct
A. Latitudes Medias
Activo15%15%15%
Tormenta Menor01%01%01%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%
B. Latitudes Altas
Activo20%15%15%
Tormenta Menor05%05%05%
Tormenta Mayor-Severa01%01%01%

All times in UTC

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